Looks like the UK Met Office and Positive Weather Solutions are squaring up on winter predictions.
Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions suggest it’s going to be another bitter snap, although not as sustained as 2010. Meanwhile Michael Lawrence of the Met Office is poo-pooing the whole deal saying
“What these forecasters do is pit themselves in opposition to what we say and if they get it right they get a lot of publicity.”
It’s an interesting statement. But it doesn’t explain quite how the Met Office have got the majority of the major weather events horrendously wrong over the last few years. Once again, 2010 was earmarked as a barbecue summer, something rejected at the time by Weather Action, once again the Met Office got egg on it’s face. This followed their “mild winter” statement made in early December (when it was mild), which was laughingly wrong.
The problem is two fold for the Met Office. Not only do they have a very hard job in predicting the weather (and I have a theory on that) but they are also implicated by association with the Climate Research Unit. The general line being
“if they can’t get tomorrows weather right, how can they be right about the climate in 100 years”.
I’ve got mixed feelings about this statement. Whilst it is amusing; it’s not like the met office is going to be saying weather it’s raining in 100 years time 🙂
Then again, there is a cross over a science here and frankly… it should be better.
We are quite a long way from the weather prediction accuracy as depicted in Back to the Future Part II.